• Historical area, yield, production data
• Agrometeorological variables
• Market/policy factors
• Data cleaning
• Handle missing/outliers
• Remove biased data
• Econometric modelling (Regression)
• LS/SURE method of estimation
• Select explanatory variables & Estimate parameters
• Assess model fit (adj-R2, RMSE, VIF, DF test)
• Residual analysis
• Refine if needed
• Predict Area & Yield
• Predict Production (Area × Yield)
• Compare with past forecasts
• Finalize estimates
by raj